Fall in love? Happy Valentine's day!

3 pm Monday 14 February 2011

The rise in the market today should give relief to many investors.  The decline that we have seen so far does not look so sharp after all.  I warn you, however, this may be just two Raleigh repairs-buying back postures sold earlier or lower stock picking for conviction.  From understanding the value of a Php 3.74 billion a day, it does not look like the market sentiment has changed substantially.  Furthermore, we continue to see net foreign selling which indicates that the transition out of our markets are developing market is still not over.

People remain prudent and is a problem with such emotion is inviting the merchants sell on strength.  Judging by today's price action, I think local merchants are convinced that the market has been fully.  Many achievements of the day was at the expense of AC, Ali SMPH.  I was a good but AC and SMPH wasn't understanding on is impressive.  MBT accounted for some positive index points, but really looks more like rebound oversold levels.

Nevertheless, there are several sheets and especially of property dual SLI and FLI.  For active, FLI see sequence from there, making it trade safety.  Tel, electric, MBT and DGTL look me be very oversold like the disadvantage of these restricted stock risk.  KEEP it stock was quite a long period of consolidation, also approaching oversold levels.  It seems well supported under 5.50.  If these levels LPZ holds, we could see it go up a bit since 4.50 seem formidable level of support.

For PNB followers, I think ????? you may already have already collapsed out of that.  I think he can trade below 45 before moving forward because the stock is wide interest in 2010.  Perhaps, his men have shifted to another bank.  BPI is usually stock a bore, and it remains to be.  He apparently has its own if the market turns worse.  I think that people are willing to hold and sell the stock in anticipation of its cash dividend standard in March.  BPI remains be defensive stock.

Between the markets of Asia, we see today recover from MSCI ex Japan lost 2.6% in the last week which is one of the biggest release of the index.  I also saw investors good news boagdlt 51% imports in January.  This trend is quite for the Philippine exporters ' ratings take China in importing more from here.

I hope you will begin to play emotion because already in stock are the levels where the PSE downside risk might be impaired.  Unfortunately, because of the experience in the late 1970 's and 1980 ' ' s early, people have a hard time shaking the very inflationary expectations from their brain becomes self fulfilling sometimes phenomenon.  Fortunately, oil prices, that the intermediary contract WestTexas (WTI), lower trading at 85.22.  As long as one is aware of the risk of disadvantage, can be a profitable trade rebound that may have their bodies right here.  Just remember, a good investor never falls in love with a stock portfolio.

Happy Valentine's day.

14 February 2011-posted by Gus Cosio | Financial markets are in Asia be first as this time.

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Happy Days?

In fact, all of us who were in this market in recent months, there is one thing in common.  We are a lot of our portfolios.  Many are pain and some terrible pain.  Today, when I looked at portfolio after closing of the market, I have only one stock that is making money.  Location of NIKL is luck.  I'm glad this stock and I look forward to taking it all even my long run society seems to work its way in the stock price.  Spot prices for nickel-context for a while, but it is still above the 25,000 US dollars per ton metric.  Copper prices also remained with them, and it looks like the Group industrial metals will be satisfied as the Alliance shows signs of recovery in production.

China's annual GDP growth in 2010 posted of 10.3%, somewhat more consensus 10.2% forecast.  It is strongly recommended that you visit the Web looking for a smaller view that reducing financial sources have since the middle of the year.  In some areas also be raising the minimum wage months to come.  Growth is generally faster than would be good for China's market is cooling efforts to counter intuitive thinking economy heating does not happen.  China may reduce more to come.

In any case, the Philippines has very little reason to tighten monetary policy.  There were very few credit expansion.  All money not because of the numbers increase to increase income is actually non-inflationary.  By month by ?????? aggressive up excess liquidity of the Bank through the SDAs, I don't see how monetary tightening will compress all inflationary pressures since the prices of rice and agricultural goods beyond the financial tools.  Mathematically, a price slightly increases, the economy will expand money credit because of all the non-growing revenue just is used to pay prices of transport and food.

What's that got to do with the stock prices then?

Well, like to invest in the markets become less when interest rates rose.  Investors tend to back until they see the scope of the interest rate.  This is probably why a stock property already has a hit over the last three major trading days.  Investors higher funding costs and pricing for developers, the user that tend to slow down the unit sales and development.

The question is, how to slow down can happen?  Well, I'm not sure that.  Mortgage rates in this country are not at all.  Very few are able to log on to a single digit interest rates for housing.  In fact, interest rates, not have to buy a House on demand.  Most of the buyers were end users, landlords who see yield positive renting affordable units.  My tendency is to think of fears in China's housing bubble is transferred here.  In spite of all these construction, I do not think the Philippines is housing bubble.  Perhaps, the high quality sector of the market may simply be property is approaching saturation point.  After all, how much you really can afford to live in the Fort McKinley or new Manila Ortigas Alabang or or.  But hey, when you talk about at the metropolitan, apartment prices not demanding it.

In either case, you are running scared many people that are long and wrong.  This is the end of the rally began in 2009?  Do you need just a blip, now has all dissipated?

I am still optimist.  This economic growth solid when displayed figures are released on the 31st of this month.  I think as you grow is revenue growth.  I think stock are approaching closer realistic budget levels.  Think of Tel.  There are now very few sellers for this stock.  Think of the mining sector; Metal prices are surely the profitability.  Think of banks; They raise the question, are the only rates must extend their intervals.

I don't want to raise false hopes.  If you crop losses at this point, all the means to do so.  Just remember that when this bottom, happy days is here again.  Right now I'm out of Tacloban give teachers talk.

20 January 2011-posted by Gus Cosio | To be the first such post.

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